I was surprised to see that Belltown Video closed recently. More accurately, I was surprised that I hadn’t noticed that Belltown Video closed recently. I thought my powers of observation were better than that, but I don’t recall seeing any “Going Out of Business Sale” signs in the windows.
In my defense, I wasn’t a customer but rode past it twice a weekday for the last three years on a Metro bus as part of my work commute.
The fact that a video-rental store lasted into 2012 at all is a surprise in itself: The two Hollywood Video stores I used to frequent in my Wallingford neighborhood disappeared years ago. In this current era of Netflix, Redbox, video on demand and especially on-line streaming, brick-and-mortar video-rental stores are becoming as rare as, well, brick and mortar.
I wonder what will replace Belltown Video and other empty retail spaces around town. The answer to that question could reveal a lot about the economy and composition of future Seattle.
Dying industries
While I don’t know what will replace Belltown Video, I have a pretty good idea of what won’t replace it. A recent article on The Washington Post website listed “The Top 10 Dying Industries in the United States,” and “DVD, game and video rental” was No. 4. The rest: Photofinishing, No. 1; Appliance Repair, No. 3; Money Market and Other Banking, No. 5; Recordable Media Manufacturing, No. 6; Hardware Manufacturing, No. 7; and Nos. 8 through 10 were various types of clothing manufacturing. So we don’t need to worry about another video store, a Fotomat, a Maytag repairman’s shop or a factory replacing Belltown Video.
If I had to guess, I would say the Belltown Video space will sit empty for a couple of years and then will be replaced by a coffee shop, beauty salon or an Asian fast-food restaurant. That seems to be the trend in Seattle the last few years.
Another trend is for landlords to leave their retail spaces empty while waiting for the next sure thing to come along. My friends encountered this a few years ago when they were looking for space to open a new gourmet-food shop. Apparently, some landlords would prefer to wait for a well-known national chain to rent their space rather than take a chance on local folks starting up a new business. I don’t know how no money coming in is better than money coming in, but I guess that’s why I’m not a landlord.
Past and present futures
Seattle needs to think about more than just filling empty retail spaces. What types of industries are going to thrive around here the next half-century?
During the recent hullabaloo over the 50th anniversary of Seattle’s World’s Fair, there were a lot of reminiscences about what Seattleites thought their future was going to be like.
Sure, there were fun predictions about flying cars, underwater cities and moon bases, but I don’t think too many people imagined a local coffee shop would expand into a global phenomenon, or a local Internet startup would help exterminate retail shopping as we know it.
Four companies defined Seattle business in the last 50 years: The Boeing Co., Microsoft, Starbucks and Amazon. How will they fare in the future?
Boeing will probably still do well, although its headquarters is now in Chicago and there’s always a chance it won’t build any of its planes around here in the coming decades.
Microsoft still seems to be doing OK with its software, but that PC on my desk is starting to look a lot like that boom box I got for my high school graduation 23 years ago.
Starbucks got some good news last week when a new health report determined that drinking coffee extends human longevity. However, we all know another health study could come out next week that says coffee drinkers will all be dead by Christmas.
Back to downtown
Amazon is the youngest company of the four and has the most unpredictable future. While it seems pretty confident about its future, turning most of South Lake Union into its own private neighborhood, I have my doubts that it will be able to provide goods that people will still use in the future — for example, books, printed or otherwise.
Amazon might see trouble looming on the horizon, too, since I recently read that it was working on prototypes of — wait for it — brick-and-mortar stores to sell its products.
While Amazon determines how to evolve its virtual department store, the real thing will return this year to Downtown Seattle. Target will open a new store at the end of July, and JCPenney will return after leaving in the early 1980s. Who says retail stores can’t go home again?
Who else will join these four companies in filling retail space and creating jobs the next few years? I don’t know, but I have a vested interest in what types of businesses exist in the future. I didn’t mention it earlier, but No. 2 on the list of “Top 10 Dying Industries” was newspaper publishing.
To get my mind off of that fact, maybe I’ll head on over to my video store in Fremont and rent a good movie. I hope it’s still open this time of day. Heck, I just hope it’s still open, period.
MATTHEW WILEMSKI, an award-winning columnist, lives in Wallingford.